ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) has released its predictions for the 2026 college football season, and the outlook for Big 12 rivals BYU and Utah is promising. Both teams are expected to be contenders for the conference championship, with BYU ranked No. 20 and Utah No. 31 nationally. This is a significant improvement from last year, where BYU finished ranked No. 11 and Utah was a surprise top 15 team.
BYU's FPI score of 13.1 gives them a projected 8.7 wins, a 1.4% chance of an undefeated season, and a 93.1% chance of bowl eligibility. Their odds of winning the Big 12 are 16.5%, and they have a 25.7% chance of making the College Football Playoff (CFP). While their odds of reaching the national championship game are just 2.2%, and winning it is a mere 0.7%, these numbers represent a substantial leap from last season's projections.
The Cougars' strength of schedule is ranked ninth in the Big 12, a significant improvement from 74th last year. This is particularly notable given their upcoming schedule, which includes hosting Notre Dame (No. 3 in FPI) and playing Utah (No. 31 in FPI) in Salt Lake City. BYU's highest-rated Big 12 home opponent is Arizona (No. 34), and they open the league season against the Wildcats on September 12.
Utah's FPI score of 8.5 gives them a projected 7.7 wins, a 0.4% chance of an undefeated season, and an 83.7% chance of bowl eligibility. Their odds of winning the Big 12 are 5.9%, and they have a 11.1% chance of making the CFP. The Utes' strength of schedule is ranked 13th in the Big 12, which is favorable for a team returning key players. However, their toughest nonconference opponent is Arkansas (No. 47 in FPI), which they host on September 12.
The FPI predictions highlight the potential for both BYU and Utah to have successful seasons. BYU's improved schedule and strong FPI ranking suggest they could be a force in the Big 12, while Utah's favorable strength of schedule and competitive odds make them a team to watch. The Cougars' and Utes' chances of making the CFP and contending for the conference title are certainly within reach, according to ESPN's projections.
